Four to Follow

Results since 15/09/2007 betting each selection to win. Updated Nov 26.

Saturday, 14th November 2008

The Four To Follow for Winterbottom Stakes Day:

Takeover Target (Ascot R7 N1)

Takeover Target returns to the track after two good efforts at Ascot. Ascot in England, that is. The globetrotting superstar ran a tremendous ½ length second in the King’s Stand before a typically gutsy effort to finish fourth in the Golden Jubilee. Prior to that Takeover Target won the group one Krisflyer in Singapore. His last Australian run was in the TJ Smith where he was defeated by Apache Cat on a heavy track after a sixteen week spell. He may be nine years old but he is still a dominant presence on the racetrack and remains one of the top sprinters in the world. He goes exceptionally well fresh and you know he travels well. His main threat is Apache Cat and a quinella with those two is an ideal saver. Bet Takeover Target down to 2.40.

Carlton Forward (Moonee Valley R1 N1)

Peter Moody has a very nicely bred youngster in Carlton Forward who looks well placed to debut with a win at Moonee Valley this weekend. Carlton Forward was nominated for both Sydney and Melbourne but will most likely start in Melbourne. He is bred for speed, by Galaxy winner Charge Forward out of the lightly raced but well performed Carlton Ace, who won on debut before placing behind Brannigan in listed company and Sennet and Paris Zero. The colt has trialled well and is the one to beat in the opening event of the day.

Northern Point (Moonee Valley R8 N1)

Northern Point looks well placed to record another fresh win this Saturday at the Valley with the talented West Point gelding appearing to have conditions to suit. Northern Point flies first-up, having won two of his four first-up runs. He loves it at the Valley and the five furlong journey is his best trip. The claim assists no end and the dead-to-good track is perfect. His recent trial win also suggests he is ready to go. Bet him down to 4.40.

Royal Ida (Morphettville R6 N1)

Royal Ida is set to resume in Adelaide with a typically good performance this Saturday. The Mick O’Leary gelding is rarely far from the mark and against a moderate lot on Saturday and getting three kilograms off his handicapped weight he is going to be very difficult to hold out. After a disappointing preparation in May/June, Royal Ida went well when resuming in August/September, running a good fifth against listed horses first-up before a very good third in a big field against listed company last time out. He races well off a break, loves the track and the 1050 metres is ideal. Try him to 3.80.

Saturday, 14th November 2008

The Four To Follow for Railway Stakes Day:

Sniper’s Bullet (Ascot R7 N3)

It has been a long journey from Mudgee to Perth and it would not surprise at all if Tracey Bartley and Sniper’s Bullet returned with plenty of riches and another group one trophy. It has been a long time between drinks for Sniper’s Bullet but he has been racing so well of late that it seems he really has his foot on the till. His best effort in recent times was two runs back in the AAMI Stakes when he ran a ¾ length second to the ultra promising All Silent. He came from the sixteen alley that day and was steered by Michael Rodd, the in-form jockey of the spring carnival and the man who will steer Sniper’s Bullet this Saturday. He looks good value at anything above 7.50 and can be tried each-way.

Soul Diva (Sandown R6 N6)

This Grand Lodge mare is getting on in years but she has been performing reasonably of late and can break through for a win in the Eclipse Stakes. She ran an absolute bottler two starts back in the Inglis Mile on Cox Plate day when she finished less than ½ a length from the winner when placing sixth. Her last start can be totally forgiven as she was given a torrid run in the Matriarch where she eventually dropped out. She is proven at the 2100 metre journey and the better draw (and arguably, better jockey) should see her given a better run in transit. The smaller field should also suit her. She is well over the odds in Friday markets and can be tried each-way down to 6.50.

Let Loushe (Sandown R5 N4)

Let Loushe is an uber consistent galloper from the Lee Freedman yard who looks certain to be around the mark yet again on Saturday. The gelding has been travelling well this preparation, winning at Mornington three runs back before running a very good second at Flemington on Cup day behind Juggle The Books. That galloper has subsequently ran well to finish third in the Heffernan Stakes last Saturday. Let Loushe has a tremendous record at the trip and has won at the track. He is going to be very hard to hold out and can be bet to 4.20.

Swift Alliance (Randwick R2 N2)

This exciting son of Don Eduardo from the Gai Waterhouse yard looks the good thing of the day and though he is expected to start short he looks like he will win and win well. In two career starts he has recorded two easy victories, winning a maiden by 5 ¼ lengths before winning at Rosehill by 1 ¾ lengths. The extra 100 metres will not hurt him and the quality of this race is not deep. Bet him with confidence at the shorts.

Saturday, 14th November 2008

The Four To Follow for Sandown Classic Day:

Zipping (Sandown R7 N1)

In terms of class, Zipping has panels on his rivals in the Sandown Classic. He is a quality weight-for-age performer who can see out a journey against a bunch of handicappers. If he races as well as he has in any of his spring starts, he will put a gap on these just as he did last year when he claimed the Classic in comfortable fashion. Zipping enters this in good form after a super third in the Turnbull, an unfortunate second in the Cox Plate and a tough ninth in the Melbourne Cup. He is the best suited under the weight scale, the mile-and-a-half suits and the addition of in-form jockey Michael Rodd only heightens the confidence. He rates a 1.80 shot and should win this with a leg in the air.

Marveen (Sandown R6 N10)

This Robert Smerdon filly showed a ton of courage to get the money on Cup Day when fighting back to defeat Romneya after being clearly headed in the straight. It was a real eyecatching performance that suggested she would be well suited by a mile. She gets that in the Guineas. She is drawn well and will most likely push forward and make this a genuine test which will suit her more than any other runner. She has also won at Sandown before, an added bonus. She can be bet down to 4.0.

Diplomatic Force (Sandown R5 N7)

Diplomatic Force is going to be very hard to hold out in the listed Kevin Heffernan Stakes, the easiest race he competed in for some time. Accustomed to racing at group one and group two level, Diplomatic Force will not know himself at this level. He has been good enough this preparation with a solid seventh in the Caulfield Sprint before a good effort to finish seventh behind Swick in the group one Patinack Farm Classic. The trip is a concern but the weight scale is in his favour. He rates a 3.25 shot and can be bet at odds better than that.

Orbit Express (Sandown R8 N10)

Orbit Express seems a promising type who looks well placed this Saturday. He turned in a very good effort last start when running a 2 length third behind Rightfully Yours. Orbit Express meets the second placed horse in that race, Count To Zero, a ½ kilogram better at the weights this time around and he looks better suited by the 1500 metre journey. Greg Childs regains the ride and that should suit as he is the last rider to guide Orbit Express to a win. Bet him each-way down to 7.0.

Saturday, 8th November 2008

The Four To Follow for Emirates Stakes Day:

Conquering (Flemington R7 N12)

Underrated Conquering looks to be the best bet in an even Emirates Stakes. He has been very good in two runs this preparation, winning back home in Hobart under a massive impost of 65 ½ kilograms before running a quality second to Sea Battle in the Waterford Crystal Mile. He meets that galloper 1 ½ kilograms better at the weight and is much better drawn than Sea Battle today. He has won once and placed on another occasion from two runs at the track and he has finished in the quinella six times from twelve runs at the trip. Bookies have him quoted at 14.0 today and that is big overs. Bet him each-way down to 9.0.

Apache Cat (Flemington R6 N1)

Apache Cat is a genuine superstar and the last year has been his most successful on the racetrack. He has won seven of his last eight starts including five straight group one wins this calendar year from 1000 metres to 1350 metres. His last defeat was over a mile last spring when he was just rolled by Marasco in the Makybe Diva Stakes. He has an exceptional fresh record, he has lost only once from five runs over the six furlong journey and he goes very well at Flemington. He is also the best suited horse under the weight scale. Apache Cat looks a good thing and can be bet down to 1.55.

Mandela (Flemington R9 N3)

The Queen Elizabeth is a tough race but it looks to be a race with three top line chances in Baughurst, Light Vision and Mandela. Mandela is the best value of the three runners with a prepost price of 7.50 quoted. He was super in winning the Werribee Cup when coming from well back to hit the lead late. That win followed up a luckless sixth in the Coongy. This trip is ideal at this stage and he is sure to be getting home strong off the back of the likely strong tempo. Try him each-way down to 5.0. Also box a quinella with #1 and #2 included.

Tan Tat De Lago (Flemington R8 N2)

This Peter Moody prepared mare has been racing in fine style this preparation and looks the one to beat now the rains have started to fall in Melbourne. She has had three runs this time in and all have been good on unsuitable ground. Her second-up run from near last behind Mimi Lebrock was outstanding while she made plenty of ground in the Myer Classic last Saturday. She will get conditions to suit this Saturday and the drop in grade doesn’t hurt her chances either. Bet her at greater than 5.50.

Thursday, 6th November 2008

The Four To Follow for Oaks Day:

Samantha Miss (Flemington R6 N1)

There is no form like three-year-old filly form. If history and formlines hold up and she can see out the 2500 metre journey, Samantha Miss should be winning with a leg in the air. Her form this preparation has been exceptional. She dominated the quality Sydney fillies races before running a good race in the Cox Plate to finish third after an ordinary ride by Glen Boss. Hugh Bowman is back on board for the Oaks and she is bred to run the trip. Bet her down to 1.65.

Mine Game (Flemington R3 N3)

Mick Kent has a very promising filly in Mine Game and she looks set to take the third at Flemington tomorrow. She looked very good in winning at Caulfield on Cup day, taking a handy race over 1400 metres. She jumps up to 1700 metres for this but being from a Grosvenor mare that shouldn’t be a problem. Corey Brown retains the ride and the wide alley is no concern. She can be backed with confidence.

Lucky Secret (Flemington R8 N1)

Lucky Secret is an exceptionally talented galloper from the Tony Vasil yard and will be very hard to stop in the eighth. Lucky Secret was absolutely devastating in winning the Schweppes last start, cruising to the front and running his rivals into the ground. He beat the talented Bel Mer by 2 ¼ lengths in that run while carrying 58 ½ kilograms. He has won nine and placed twice more from twelve career starts and is a proven weight carrier. He has drawn well and the 1100 metres is ideal. He will be very hard to run down. Bet him at 2.75 or above.

Beaming (Flemington R1 N5)

Beaming is a promising young mare who has made consistency her hallmark in an eight race career that has netted three wins and four placings. She resumes in the opening event of the day after a good finish to her last preparation that saw her record back-to-back wins before a good second in the Creswick at Flemington. She has never, in fact, finished further back than third in four career runs down the straight. She has won fresh before and this seems her grade. Back her each-way at 5.0.

Tuesday, 4th November 2008

The Four To Follow for Melbourne Cup Day:

Zipping (Flemington R7 N7)

Zipping has been going extremely well without much luck this preparation but that will hopefully change on Tuesday. Two runs back he got home like a train to finish third in the Turnbull at huge odds before having a Cox Plate stolen from his grasp by a lack of pace in the race. He is flying. Zipping has plenty of knockers going into the Cup with his staying credentials questioned and his previous fourths being used as justification of such. I don’t buy into it. He always runs well and his two Cup runs have been very good. It also took Empire Rose three goes to win her first Melbourne Cup. With the pace sure to be on, he is well suited. His current quote of 21.0 is silly. Bet him down to 13.0 and have him both ways.

Aichi (Flemington R5 N2)

The strategic gelding looks the best bet of the Cup day card in a moderate five furlong affair. Prepared by Peter Snowden, Aichi has been racing in great heart of late, winning up the straight over Time Thief two starts back before a classy second to Sunburnt Land (against the older horses) in the Caulfield Sprint. He will appreciate being back against his own age in this and the class drop is significant. The inside draw is some concern but it should just allow McEvoy to avoid trouble on him. He looks a genuine even money shot.

The Fuzz (Flemington R8 N2)

The Fuzz could be silly odds in the old Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes and is well worth an each-way wager. Prepost markets have him at 11.0 and that is a stupid price. He ran an absolute treat three runs back at Flemington when just getting nutted by Stavka over the unsuitable 1400 metre journey. His two subsequent runs have been in group one company. Back to listed level, he is beautifully in with 58kg. He loves Flemington, goes well off a break and he has a form jockey on board. Bet him each-way down to 6.0.

Chantal Sally (Flemington R3 N6)

Chantal Sally seems to have the right kind of formlines for the old Cup Day Hurdle (minus the jumps). The bonny mare ran a very good third in the Cranbourne Cup, a race that has turned into a pretty solid form event with the subsequent runs of Barbaricus, who placed in both the Mackinnon and the Caulfield Cup. After that run she finished midfield in the Geelong Cup in a fair effort. She loves a trip and is sure to be suited by the 2800 metre journey. Try her each-way down to 7.0.

Saturday, 1st November 2008

The Four To Follow for Victoria Derby Day:

Whobegotyou (Flemington R7 N1)

It is tough to see any of the other Derby runners getting close to Whobegotyou. He looks a star. His win in the Stutt Stakes was simply outstanding and he followed that up with one of the most impressive Guineas victories imaginable. The step up in distance proved no problem last start when he circled a decent field in the AAMI Vase to win by 1 ½ lengths with some impressive sectionals. He has the Derby at his mercy as he gives every indication he will run a strong 2500 metres. 1.35 is his right price. Only the great uncertainty of racing will beat him.

Viewed (Flemington R6 N6)

Bart’s “second horse” is capable of a boilover in the Mackinnon Stakes in what looks a wide open race. The key to his success will be the position he takes up in transit. The Mackinnon looks bereft of speed with only Theseo and Barbaricus likely to push forward. Despite racing at the back this preparation, Viewed is capable of leading when he gets up to ten furlongs and beyond. When he won the Brisbane Cup he pushed forward and won in a canter. If he takes a forward position in this he is going to be very hard to hold out. He was good in the Caulfield Cup when grinding home and was not embarrassed at either his first or second-up runs. He has a good record at this trip and Steven Arnold on board is a bonus. Try him each-way down to 11.0.

Wilander (Flemington R5 N3)

Northern Meteor is the hotpot in the Ascot Vale Stakes but he looks to be the lay of the day. He was super impressive in breaking two track records in Sydney but they must surely have taken plenty out of the horse and 1.80 looks significant unders. Wilander is the horse to beat him. He was sensational in defeating subsequent winner Lucky Secret in the Schillaci last start, running down the speedy galloper in the shadows of the post. Back to his own age group he should be ready to fire again. The 1200 metres is a query but that is the only concern. Bet him down to 4.80.

Trick of Light (Flemington R8 N12)

Trick of Light looks the value runner in a tough Myer Classic. The Mick Kent trained mare is a well performed galloper with six wins and four placings from sixteen runs. She enters this group one affair first-up where she is usually near her best. She has never finished further back than second in five first-up runs. She also has an excellent record at the mile with three wins and three seconds from six runs at the journey. Flemington has also suited her in the past with two placings from three runs. Against the mares she is right in this and the 17.0 on offer in prepost markets is big overs. She can be tried each-way down to 11.0.

Saturday, 25th October 2008

The Four To Follow for Cox Plate Day:

Zipping (Moonee Valley R8 N3)

Zipping has really slipped under the radar this spring but we are going to use the cash we collected on his third placing at 80-1 in the Turnbull Stakes to load up again. Zipping was absolutely brilliant in the Turnbull, coming from the tail of the field at his second run in to get home an absolute treat for third. Three more strides and he could have won. That effort followed a super fresh run where he really motored home in the Feehan to finish less than three lengths from the winner. He has been set for this by the very astute Lloyd Williams and we all know how his horses perform in their “Grand Final” (see Efficient, Melbourne Cup, 2007). Zipping has won two of four at the Valley and four of nine at the trip and is reaching peak fitness. He is also drawn perfectly and is set to get a great run in transit. With obvious chinks in the armour of the two favourites and the fact the Cox Plate is renowned as a race for the older horses, everything seems to be lining up for Zipping. The push for him is big. Bet him down to 4.60.

Causeway Queen (Moonee Valley R7 N15)

The talented Tony Vasil trained mare Causeway Queen looks the value runner in the Moonee Valley Cup with as much as 21.0 being quoted about her. Talent wise, she is as good as any in this field. Her effort three runs back behind Tuesday Joy is proof of that. She was bottled in on the fence and couldn’t get out in the Stock Stakes, finishing just over a length behind the group one winner. She arguably should have won. Her effort in the JRA Cup was forgettable but can be forgiven due to the lack of pace in the race while her run in the Cranbourne Cup, where Caulfield Cup placegetter Barbaricus ran second, was good. She is unproven at the trip and she has drawn wide so there is plenty of risk with her. Saying that, she is well over the odds for a horse who has won 50% of her starts. Bet her each-way down to 11.0.

Whobegotyou (Moonee Valley R6 N1)

This Mark Kavanagh gelding should be racing in the Cox Plate. If he was, he would be favourite. Instead he is sticking to his age group and looks set for another dominant victory. His win in the Stutt Stakes was brilliant before coming out and claiming a very good Caulfield Guineas by 3 ¼ lengths. The second horse in that, Time Thief, is no slouch. Whobegotyou looks to be a superstar and it is never wise to bet against superstars. Try him down to 1.40.

Mr. Baritone (Moonee Valley R5 N1)

Stradbroke Handicap winner Mr. Baritone looks the best in at the weights in the group two sprint over six furlongs and looks to be over the odds at his current quote of 11.0. Mr. Baritone returned from his Stradbroke win with a very good effort in the Manikato, finishing only 1 ¼ lengths from winner Typhoon Zed. He disappointed last start but that was up the straight so is a complete forgive run as straight form means very little. He has won three of five at the Valley and has finished in the money at nine of his fifteen runs over the trip. He has a top class jockey on board and is the best suited horse under the weight scale. Try him each-way down to 8.0.

Saturday, 18th October 2008

The Four To Follow for Caulfield Cup Day:

Mad Rush (Caulfield R8 N7)

Luca Cumani has a talented and consistent galloper in Mad Rush and the son of Lemon Drop Kid can become the first Northern Hemisphere galloper since Taufan’s Melody to win the Caulfield Cup. Mad Rush gets a lot of ticks. His record is outstanding with the galloper finishing no further back than third in all eight of his runs. All four of his runs over 2400 metres have been super with his worst effort a ¼ length second. He has a quality Australian jockey on board in Damien Oliver. The draw looks suitable with the wide alley allowing him to gallop outside of horses in a manner more suited to European racing. With some question marks over the favourites (Weekend Hussler-the trip, Littorio-will to win, Master O’Reilly-weight, Guillotine-barrier), Mad Rush looks a great each-way bet at big odds. Bet him down to 10.0.

Diplomatic Force (Caulfield R9 N5)

Diplomatic Force is a first-up specialist and can score at nice odds in a very good sprinting affair. Diplomatic Force has won three of four fresh with his other effort a close-up second. He kicked off last preparation with a brilliant win over Vivacious Spirit in the group two Yallambee. That preparation proved to be lucrative with a third in the group one Goodwood and a third in the group three BTC Cup. He excels at the 1100 metre journey and has a jockey on board who knows him well. With some hot pace in the race, expect Diplomatic Force to sit off them and fly late. Bet him down to 5.50.

Mandela (Caulfield R7 N3)

Mandela is a little one-paced these days but there is no doubting his honesty and in a weak 2000 metre group three event, he is right in the mix at double figure odds. His performances this preparation have been solid enough with a quality second at Moonee Valley over 1519 metres before lugging a big weight to fifth at Flemington over this trip. Last start he finished only 2 ½ lengths off the winner in the Hill Stakes, a race that has been stamped as a good form event. He goes well at this journey, is drawn to box seat and looks to have a class edge on most of these. Try him each-way down to 7.0.

Tindal (Caulfield R3 N1)

Tindal looks a very impressive type having recorded three wins and two second placings from five race starts. He was brilliant in winning last start over Heart of Dreams when he had to do plenty of work early from the wide gate. He is again drawn a little awkwardly but the addition of talented senior jockey Steven Arnold should negate that. Tindal is already proven at the distance and should strip fitter for his last start second-up effort. Bet him down to 3.50.

Saturday, 11th October 2008

The Four To Follow for Caulfield Guineas Day:

Time Thief (Caulfield R7 N14)

Lee Freedman has an ultra-talented galloper in Time Thief and it would not surprise at all if he claimed the Caulfield Guineas at double figure odds. Time Thief was super in winning on debut before back-to-back second placings. The first of those was to Aichi up the Flemington straight while the second was a very good effort behind Fernandina when drawing wide in the Guineas Prelude. He will have no problems with the mile and the better draw places him in good stead. Having the King of Caulfield, Dwayne Dunn, on his back does not hurt either. Try him each-way at better than 7.0.

Casual Pass (Caulfield R5 N3)

Casual Pass definitely looks the value in the Yalumba Stakes with his current price of 6.50 a touch of over. The favourite for race is Pompeii Ruler but while his form is sound he does look a touch of unders, particularly in a small field where the lack of pace is a big concern. Casual Pass is also a query with the lack of pace but with the better price is worth the risk. He loves it at Caulfield where he has won three times, all at this journey. The weight conditions suit and his ability to sit anywhere in running could prove handy. Bet him at 5.0.

Alamosa (Caulfield R6 N3)

Alamosa is an extremely good galloper and will appreciate the drop back from weight-for-age conditions to handicap conditions. The Mick Price trained four-year-old has been performing well in weight-for-age races this preparation with his best effort a 1 ¾ length fourth to Weekend Hussler in the Memsie two starts back. Last time out he finished 1 ¾ lengths sixth behind Guillotine in the Feehan. His record at this distance is also most pleasing with four wins and a placing from six starts. The awkward draw is a little concerning but the quality jockey somewhat offsets that. Try him each-way at better than 6.0.

Dolphin Jo (Caulfield R3 N2)

Dolphin Jo was super last start in the Bart Cummings, getting home a treat in a race bereft of pace. He ground home like a real staying type in what was a very impressive effort. There will be no problem with pace in this with Cefalu sure to bound along out front. He loves a staying trip with all his wins coming between 2200 metres and 2800 metres and he has won at Caulfield. The small field should also suit as he will not have as much traffic to deal with in the run home. The 9.0 on offer is super value and if there are no scratchings he can be tried each-way down to 5.0. If the field is reduced to seven, bet him win only.

Saturday, 4th October 2008

The Four To Follow for Epsom Handicap and Turnbull Stakes Day:

Raheeb (Randwick R8 N6)

It is impossible to go past Raheeb in the Epsom after his blistering win in the Cameron Stakes at Newcastle last start. Raheeb absolutely decimated a handy field to win by 3 ¼ lengths. That win followed an eyecatching first-up effort behind Typhoon Zed where he just got bobbed out. Raheeb looks well suited by the mile and from the gun draw he is going to be right around the money. This isn’t the strongest Epsom field and Raheeb is on the up. Try him at 3.5 or better.

Get Up Jude (Randwick R7 N8)

Get Up Jude did the right thing by us all last week with a super win at double-figure odds in the Colin Stephen Quality. It was a classy effort that saw him edge out Tangalooma with Fiumicino 1 ¾ lengths further adrift. Get Up Jude looks set to start double-figure odds once more and can again be tried each-way. He is unbeaten here at Randwick and has won twice and placed once from three starts at the 2400 metre journey. With the favourite an inconsistent proposition, Get Up Jude looks a great bet. He can be supported down to 7.5.

Samantha Miss (Randwick R5 N1)

Three-year-old fillies who prove themselves to be a class above their rivals are rarely beaten when they stick to their sex and age group and it is expected Samantha Miss will continue that tradition. Samantha Miss looks to be one of the most exciting fillies to come along in years with the Kris Lees-filly having won five times and placed two more from eight race starts. She has been exceptional this preparation with excellent wins in the first two legs of the fillies triple crown, the Furious Stakes and the Tea Rose Stakes. She is going to be short but she looks a good thing with only the great uncertainty of racing against her. Take her at better than 1.35.

Zipping (Flemington R8 N3)

Weekend Hussler is certainly the horse to beat in the Turnbull but the wide alley and the 2000 metre journey for the first time makes him a dangerous proposition at the short odds. We are better off going wide and Zipping is very wide and looks well over the odds with 61.0 on offer for the win and 13.50 the place. Zipping turned in a super run fresh over the mile in the Feehan Stakes where he got home a treat at the Valley to finish only 2 ¾ lengths behind Guillotine. He is much better suited at 2000 metres and is sure to strip fitter. With not a lot of pace in the race he should settle further forward and that will work in his favour. He is a ridiculous price at present and can be tried each-way down to 21.0.

Past four to follow selections can be found here.