Olympics Betting
Update 15

Women's Discus (Monday 21:00)

The women's discus is one event where a new world record is a million to one. There have only been a handful of throws within 10m of the record in the past decade which is the ultimate testament to the power of steroids. World best this year Pischalnikova was one of the many Russian women recently busted.

Grasu - finally gets her shot at a big title, top ranked this year of those in the final, and with four throws over 64m in 2008. But she has never won a major title in more than a decade of elite competition. Can't be backing her as favourite on that alone.

Barrios - third at the worlds last year (neither of those who beat her are here) and set her PB less than a month ago, continuing a trend of improving it each year. Qualified for the final with her first throw. Unscarred by years of not being quite good enough like Grasu.

Brown-Trafton - has improved her PB by over 4m this year but importantly, has had at least seven throws better than her old mark showing consistency. Needed three throws to get through qualies and has little exposure at events outside the US. She can win this, but I can't support someone who obviously doesn't like being away from her own bed.

Pospisilova-Cechlova (might just be listed as Cechlova) - breezed through qualies with her first throw. Not high on the list of efforts this year but she has been a 63-67m thrower in each of the last five years. Her fourth in Athens with 66.08 would probably win here, it's not a high standard. She doesn't appear much on the register for this year, but then again, neither did Mbango Etone in the triple jump.

Yatchenko - bronze medallist at the past two Olympics, and World Champ in 2003. Hasn't thrown 65m since 2004 but qualified with her first throw. Not without a chance.

Thurmond - 65m thrower this year but a shocking record at big events (10th or worse Helsinki WC, Athens, Paris WC, Sevilla WC). Could surprise but can't back her.

A great event for betting - the standard isn't that high so it's all about who holds their nerve on the day.

1.5 pts Barrios 3.5 or better 3.55 Sportsbet
1pt e/w Pospisilova-Cechlova 15 at Ladbrokes (paying 1/4 1,2,3) or 1pt win down to 11 elsewhere. (11.0 Centrebet)

Women's Pole Vault (21:20 Monday)

Isinbayeva is a phenomenon and wants a world record at the biggest show on earth. Nobody comes near her, and while stars have been known to choke on the big stage (the great Sergey Bubka's Olympic record was awful despite more world records than fingers and toes), I don't see it happening here. No bet.

Men's Long Jump (Tuesday 00:10)

This might not be the cakewalk for the favourite that it first appeared. The Panamian Irving Saladino is clearly better than the field but he has a chronic knee injury which he knows he has to deal with. The track in the Bird's Nest stadium is reportedly rock hard which can't be a good thing. Saladino also struggled through qualifying, progressing on his last jump. He could blow them away, but you've got to risk him at the price.

Carnejo set a PB of 8.46 a few weeks back, and being Cuban, doesn't get to many international events. You'd think he might have been doing rather well behind closed doors. Breezed through qualification.

Tsatoumas is an 8.66m jumper but has nothing to show for it at big events. With so many Greek athletes in trouble re dope tests of late, you have to be cynical and wonder if he can bring his absolute best to the sandpit. Credit where it is due though, he did cruise through on his first jump, and only three guys auto-qualified.

The Zimbabwean Makusha is the NCAA champion and has improved significantly this season now that he is focusing on this event. He jumped 8.14m at his first attempt which was enough to get through.

Mokoena is the world indoor champion but appears to have his best jumps at altitude. If the winning jump is only in the 8.30 range, he has a chance.

This is a favourite we have to 'get'. I'd be laying him until the cows come home as a bookie.

Lay Saladino to risk 2pts (<1.8)
1pt back Carnejo at 8 (TAB) - take down to 6.5
0.5pt back Makusha at 26 (TAB), 23 (Sportsbet) or 21 generally.

Men's 3000m Steeplechase (23:10 Monday)

Too hard, I struggle to sort out races like this so will stay out.

Women's 800m (23:35 Monday)

Jelimo is exceptional, just watch her burn this field off. She is just 18 and has been running this event for only four months!

No bet.

Men's 400m Hurdles (00:00 Tuesday)

This will almost certainly be an American 1-2-3, but in which order? They've all beaten each other at various times. It could go any way, I'll pass.

No bet.



No hockey for Monday.

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