Olympics Betting
Update 18

Womens 20km Walk (Thursday 11:00)

The Russians dominate this market with Kaniskina just in black odds. I've got a theory that the Russians will be worried about mass action against them if any more female athletes test positive, after seven of them failed an EPO test a few weeks back. I'll lay the short price for a small play.

Lay Kaniskina at 2.4 or shorter to risk 1pt.

Mens Decathlon (Thursday 21:10)

Bryan Clay is in top form, setting a PB at the US Trials in June and winning the world indoor equivalent (heptathlon) back in March. He's class, but he is very short for an event of this calibre. The great Roman Sebrle is the only man with a higher PB but he has hardly competed this year due to injury. Krauchanka is all about promise - the 22yo Belarussian is favourite for the without Clay market, but he's quite short as well. This is an arduous event where most of the chasing pack have had inconsistent form due to injuries. With no qualification round, it's hard to get a gauge on who is in top nick. The Cuban Suarez is young and on the rise, setting PBs in eight of the ten events this year. I think he's a decent chance of getting a medal, and in the without Clay market, each-way will include fourth place (assuming the fav is on the podium of course).

1pt Suarez e/w at 17 Lads, w/o Clay (1/4 1,2,3). If you just want to take him outright: @51.0 Sportingbet , Centrebet

Womens Javelin (Thursday 21:20)

By the PBs, this should be a three-horse race but the record holder Menendez is way out of form, only scraping through qualification. Spotakova threw one spear in qualifying and set the mark. She has been very consistent this season although a couple of events were won with 63m throws. I'd be surprised if the winning mark isn't pushing 70m here, which could mean a new PB for the Czech, but she's in the form of her life. Obergfoll was only 20cm off her season best and similarly, needed just one throw to get through.

I like Spotakova, but won't get involved at 1.5 or so.


Womens 200m (Thursday 21:30)

Veronica Campbell-Brown is the defending champion and was most impressive in the early rounds. She came into this event fresh and reaped the benefit. She has the fastest two legal times this year, although Felix has a faster one from the US Trials, but with a howling gale behind her. Allyson Felix looked to be working a little harder on her way through, and has drifted in the betting accordingly. She won in Osaka last year by half a second, but had been fast through the heats.

Not much between the two, but I'm favouring Campbell-Brown. Not going to take odds-on though.

Mens Triple Jump (Thursday 22:25)

Phillips Idowu is the clear favourite here, and hardly even stretched to achieve the qualifying mark. He took the World Indoor title earlier in the year with 17.75m, 1cm further than the winning mark of Nelson Evora in Osaka last year. Idowu and Girat had high hopes of winning that title but disappointed. Did they choke? It has to be a worry. Idowu and Girat qualified with one jump, Evora fouled one and had a season best with his first legal jump.

Grigorio and Oprea have PBs in the upper 17m range, but haven't reached that for a while - they could be the blow-out factor.

I'd rather be with the value on Evora and Girat than take the shorts on Idowu, no matter how impressive he looked the other day. I lean slightly to Girat because of his consistency this year, but Evora has shown he can pull it out on the big occasion.

1pt Evora at 7 - TAB, Sportsbet
1pt Girat at 7 - TAB, Centrebet, Sportsbet, Sportingbet



Mens 400m (Thursday 23:20)

It's a match race between Jeremy Wariner and LaShawn Merritt. These two have the top ten times of the year and will run the quinella. Wariner is well into the red, but he has been beaten by Merritt at least twice this season. Wariner has seven sub-44 second races, Merritt just the one, at the worlds in Osaka last year. Unfortunately for him, Wariner was another half a second faster.

Wariner to win, no bet at the price.


Mens 110m Hurdles (Thursday 23:40)

Robles has been odds-on everywhere all year (with the exception of TAB who went up 2.10 and got smashed), and with the withdrawal of Liang Xiu, he's now unbackable. But then again, so was LoLo Jones.

Can't see Robles losing. No bet.

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