Update 2

Finals:

Mens 400IM

This is all about Michael Phelps. Will he break Mark Spitz's record of seven golds? I doubt it. The competition is stronger and he has semi-finals to deal with in a couple of events, plus relay golds aren't assured. In this event though, he is miles ahead. Ryan Lochte broke the old world mark at the US trials but he still finished a second behind Phelps. Phelps by a street, no bet.


Mens 400m free

An open market with at least four live contenders. Hackett wasn't brilliant in the heats but said afterwards it was his fastest ever heat time. He is the experienced campaigner, he has the fastest time this year, you'd have to lean to him as fav. He also has all his main rivals on his right so he won't need to switch sides breathing to keep track of them. But five of his opponents set PBs in the prelims. The Korean Park reckons he can challenge Thorpe's WR but he's got about 10 of Thorpey's times to get past first.

Aus bookies will open their markets in the morning so hard to see the full range of prices. I've priced it up as follows:

Hackett 3.8
Jensen 3.8
Park 4.5
Zhang 9
Vanderkaay 18
Lobintsev 20
Mellouli 40
Prilukov 95

No value spotted early, I think I'll sit back and cheer for Hackett.



Womens 400IM

Stephanie Rice cruised in the freestyle leg when four seconds in front with 100m to go (fastest split time at 300m by 0.77s), and only ended up qualifying fourth. Better to save energy in the prelims rather than burn out early when you have a busy campaign scheduled. Consequently Ladbrokes have posted her at 3.25 to win gold. That's value, especially considering the Betfair market is under 3.

If it's still there in the morning, take 3pts Rice at 3.25 Ladbrokes (back her down as low as 2.75)


Womens 4x100m free

Relay prelims are always tricky, you have to look out for who will join the team in the final. The Aussies have Trickett to come on, the Yanks have Coughlin and Torres, the Dutch have Dekker and Veldhuis. The Chinese and Germans look to have gone with the A-team already. The Dutch hold the WR and can have a good few seconds off with a change of line-up.

2pts Netherlands 6.0 at Sportingbet (back down to 4.5)

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