Swimming 15/8

Womens 200m Breast

Leisel Jones is very short and for good reason. Soni set the fastest time, but Jones has beaten that time on nine previous occasions, and three times this year. She’s got another gear left.

There might be some w/o Jones and Soni markets out there. I’ve had no luck in these so I will steer clear, but Jukic is flying. Not sure if the report has been in the Aus media, but she ‘set’ a European record (2.23.9) for this event a month ago, only to have it ruled out because the pool was 4cm too short! So then she swam even faster in the semis.

No bet

Mens 200m Back

A tight two-horse race here. Peirsol and Lochte share the world record and there never seems to be more than a fingertip between them. Lochte won the World Championship in Melbourne last year, and Peirsol equalled it at the US trials. Peirsol lifted a notch for the 100 final as per his regular style, Lochte has the very tough task of swimming this final then backing up 30mins later against Phelps in the 200IM. On that you have to lean to Peirsol, but it’s not as if Lochte won’t have swum that schedule before. 1.57 or so for Peirsol seems about right. Sit back and watch a great race.

Irie has a second on Rogan on PB in the w/o favs markets.

No bet

Mens 200IM (12:38pm Friday)

Can Phelps get the octet of gold? Can Lochte do the quick back-up after straining every sinew in the backstroke? Phelps should win this but at 1.05 or so, it’s worth laying him for a few bucks. Lochte is well clear of the rest of the field on times, the only doubt is if he can back up which I think he can.

Lay Phelps at 1.07 or shorter, Betfair, to risk 0.5pts.

If you have an account with VCBet, bet 2pts Back Lochte 1.8 w/o Phelps

Womens 100m Free

Stick a pin in this one. Trickett got the lucky break of her life to scrape into this final but you wonder how she even put herself in that position. Fourth in the semi is either lackadaisical or floundering. Still, she had the fastest time in the relay... but then again, so did Jason Lezak. Coughlin topped the times in the semis but did the same thing in Melbourne last year and missed the place. The Europeans interest me here. Veldhuis was part of the gold medallist Dutch relay team and Britta Steffen set the Olympic record leading off in the same race. The German also has swum 53.3 or quicker three times (twice in 08), more than Trickett/Lenton. This race is tight, very tight. I don’t see how Steffen can be fourth favourite.

1.5pts back Steffen at 7, Hills, Sportingbet, Coral..(back at 6 and above) 6.5 with IASBet

Heats/Semis

Womens 50m Free

Will wait and see what happens in the heats before getting involved.

Mens 1500m Free

Have to be against Hackett before the heats, Sawrymowicz at 13 at Lasseters is over the odds. WC champion in Melbourne last year and with a quiet schedule unlike Vanderkaay and Park who are much shorter in the betting.

1pt Sawrymowicz 13 Lasseters (back down to 10)

Swimming 16/8

Womens 800m Free

Hope you got on Adlington, she was massive overs at 3 with the TAB, even 2.85 with SportsAcumen. She swam the fastest time in this event since the legendary Janet Evans in 1989. The Yanks have flopped, leaving Filippi and Potec as the challengers. The Brit gets plenty of rest to go out and blitz again, I rate her at 1.35 now. Filippi probably has a bit left, she set a European record in the 1500 (non-Olympic event for the women) a month ago, swimming an impressive 8.23 for the last 800m. I’ll be on the lookout for value with her in any w/o Adlington markets.

In a side note, Adlington has been matched as high as 1000 and as low as 6 in the BBC Sports Personality of the Year market on Betfair. Any time a Brit is in contention, watch the markets over-react!

An update for athletics and hockey (if value found) will be posted later. As much as I’d love to get involved in other sports, there just isn’t the time and I’d rather be selective and get things right than spread too thin for little reward.

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